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A physicist’s visualization of Bayes’ theorem

Have you noticed that everyone is talking about Bayes’ theorem nowadays?

Bayes’ theorem itself is not very complicated. The human mind, however, is extremely bad at trying to gain an intuitive understanding of Bayes’ theorem based (Bayesian) reasoning. The counter-intuitive nature of Bayesian reasoning, combined with the jargon and intellectual baggage that usually accompanies descriptions of Bayes’ theorem, can make it difficult to wrap one’s mind around. I am a very visual thinker, therefore, I quickly came up with a visualization of the theorem. A little Googling shows that there are many different ways of visualizing Bayes’ theorem. A few months ago I came across a visualization of Bayes’ theorem which I found somewhat perplexing.  Even though mathematical truths are universal, they are internalized differently by every individual. I would love to hear whether others find my visualization approach useful. It is a very physicist-oriented visualization.
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