Category Archives: politics

Why defeating Trump in 2020 may be really hard

[Crosspost from Facebook]

Currently waves of anti-Trump protests are sweeping the nation, in light of his unethical and likely un-constitutional executive order restricting the safe passage of immigrants and refugees. Since the women’s march on Washington I’ve heard two or three different people now say there is no way Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Everyone who wishes Trump to be defeated should try to cultivate a realistic view on how difficult it might be. Under my current calibration, my 95% confidence interval for Trump winning in 2020 is is 20%-85%. That factors in a ~10% chance he will be impeached. Here’s my thinking: Continue reading

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